Decision making under incomplete data using the imprecise Dirichlet model

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Decision making under incomplete data using the imprecise Dirichlet model

The paper presents an efficient solution to decision problems where direct partial information on the distribution of the states of nature is available, either by observations of previous repetitions of the decision problem or by direct expert judgements. To process this information we use a recent generalization of Walley’s imprecise Dirichlet model, allowing us also to handle incomplete obser...

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INTRODUCTION 2 The " Bag of marbles " example " Bag of marbles " problems (Walley, 1996) • " I have. .. a closed bag of coloured marbles. I intend to shake the bag, to reach into it and to draw out one marble. What is the probability that I will draw a red marble? " • " Suppose that we draw a sequence of marbles whose colours are (in order): blue, green, blue, blue, green, red.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning

سال: 2007

ISSN: 0888-613X

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2006.07.016